Fastest Growing 25-44 Year-Old Populations in Large Metros Were in Austin, Raleigh and Dallas-Ft. Worth; Medium Metros in Florida Dominate Top 10
Among large metros (1 million or more), the population aged 25 to 44 (mostly Millennials with some older Gen Z) grew fastest from 2020 to 2025 in Austin (21%), Raleigh (16%) and Dallas-Ft. Worth (15%). Orlando, Jacksonville and San Antonio followed. Nationally, this age group grew 5.8%, nearly twice the 3.1% rate for the population overall.
Among medium metros (500k to 1M), six of the top 10 were in Florida, led by Lakeland (32%), Port St. Lucie (26%) and Cape Coral-Fort Myers (25%).
Every Top 10 (large and medium) metro leader sits in the Sun Belt, with the exception of Boise and Provo. Several metros stand out for their jump up or down in the rankings since 2015:
Large metros Raleigh and Jacksonville jumped to the Top 5 from the mid-teens in 2015. Tampa, Charlotte and Phoenix jumped to the Top 10 from even lower positions in 2015. Austin held first place in both periods. Among medium metros, eight of the Top 10 are new to the list since 2015.
The steepest falls in the large metro rankings belong to San Francisco, San Jose and Portland. San Francisco and Los Angeles are the only large metros that lost 25-to-44-year-olds outright from 2020 to 2025 . Medium metros that fell from the top rankings in 2015 include New Orleans, Honolulu, and Durham (which is a separate metro from Raleigh).
Find your community’s data in the map below. And, we provide data for counties so you can determine which counties within your metro are growing the fastest. State data is also provided. A full data download is available in the second sheet.
Methodology and Source
Growth is measured by the 5-year percentage change in population 25-44 years old, which aligns mostly with the Millennial generation and the oldest of Generation Z. Headlight Data combines metropolitan areas and micropolitan areas into one list and ranks them by population growth according to size category: Large (1,000,000+ people), Medium (500k up to 1M) and Small (under 500k). Headlight uses the latest 2023 OMB definitions of metros and micros applied retroactively for all years. Metros (which we define as both metropolitan and micropolitan areas) account for 95% of the US population overall and 99% of US population change from 2020 to 2025.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program. Figures for 2020-2025 come from the Vintage 2025 estimates; the 2010-2015 comparison uses the estimates vintage published for those years, which is built on the 2010 census base.
The Census Bureau's Population Estimates Program (PEP) is a modeled estimate of age, race, and sex down to the county level, built from administrative records — birth and death certificates, IRS tax returns, Medicare enrollment, and Social Security files — carried forward annually from the last census. The Census Bureau's American Community Survey (ACS) is an annual statistical survey of U.S. households whose weights are calibrated to match PEP estimates, which makes PEP the authoritative source for population by age, race, and sex.